THE spectacle is depressingly familiar - angry supporters of losing sports teams venting their frustration through violence and rioting. It is what happened in London's Trafalgar Square in 1996, after England's soccer team lost to Germany. But surprisingly, things might have been even worse had England won.

That's according to an analysis by Vaseekaran Sivarajasingam, a surgeon at Cardiff University in Wales based on admissions to the University Hospital of Wales's accident and emergency department, also in Cardiff. The city is home to the 74,500-seat Millennium Stadium, scene of numerous sporting events, including Wales's recent grand slam victory in rugby union's Six Nations championship.

The team focused on the 106 international rugby or soccer matches between 1995 and 2002. On non-match days, the number of assault victims averaged 21 per day, and on match days when Wales lost this rose to 25. But the situation was worse after a win, with 33 admissions per day on average (Injury Prevention, vol 11, p 69).

Sivarajasingam blames fans' extra swagger when they win, aggravated by drunken celebrations. "Alcohol is a big part in this," he says. "And when people mingle around in a heightened state of self-assertiveness and confidence, they are more likely to resolve an argument with a fight."